Sports Betting Football Strategy

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Home Sports Betting College Football College Football Betting Strategy College Football Betting Strategy College football season is an incredible time of the year filled with literally thousands of. Arbitrage Betting. Sports Arbitrage betting is something that I still use on the occasion as part of my. Sports Betting; Football Trading Guide & Strategies. Last updated October 18th, 2019. Football is one of the most popular betting markets in the world. This makes it a very attractive prospect for trading. In this football trading guide, we will explain some of the multitude of football trading strategies.

Making money betting on sports can be tough, but there are a lot of sports bettors who consistently win, and there are even a lot of professional bettors who make a good living off of sports betting. On this page you will find sports betting strategy and tips to help you become one of the winning bettors.

Below I talk about the basic sports betting strategies for beginner bettors, but if you are more experienced you can check out the advanced sports betting strategy articles towards the bottom of this page.

The Basics To Sports Betting Strategy

In order to help yourself make money or a profit from sports betting there are a couple of basic strategies or tips you will want to understand and follow. None of these sports betting strategies are secrets by any means, but following them will help you win money betting on sports.

The bettors who don’t follow any of these strategies are often referred to as “squares” and those are the type of bettors that the sportsbooks will make their profits from.

#1 Money Management/Bankroll Management

When you are betting on sports you should always set aside a certain amount of money, which we refer to as your “bankroll”, in which you can afford to lose. Like with any type of gambling, you never want to bet betting on sports with money you cannot afford to lose. Set aside a certain amount of money that you can use for your bankroll for the week, the month, or the season. A general sports betting strategy for money management is to only make bets with 1%-5% of your bankroll. For example, if your bankroll for the NFL season was $1,000 you would be making $10-$50 bets on each NFL game you wanted to bet on. It is also very important that you do not chase your loses with bigger bets. It is common for some sports bettors to be down money and feel in order to win it back they need to increase the size of their bets. This is putting yourself in the wrong mindset and will often lead to you losing even more money. Work with the size of your bankroll, and look to slowly increase it over the length of the season.

Here’s a video going over Bankroll Management strategies for sports betting:

#2 Bet Sober and Don’t Go on Tilt

Although betting while sober seems like common sense, you’d be surprised how many people bet on sports under the influence. Is it a coincidence that the Las Vegas casinos offer free alcoholic drinks while you are gambling? I don’t think so. I don’t want to sound like your mother here, but betting while under the influence will impair your judgement and should definitely be avoided if you want to become a winning sports bettor.

The second part of this tips is “Don’t Go on Tilt”. Going on tilt or “tilting” is a commonly referred to term with poker players and basically means letting your emotions take over, which often leads to bad decisions. If you are angry or upset at something, such as a couple bad beats with your sports bets, you shouldn’t be placing any more bets. Take a break, go for a walk, get your mind clear before you start making anymore sports betting picks.

#3 Do Your Homework

This is maybe the most important sports betting strategy. You will always want to do your research before placing your bets. Although going with your hunch when betting your favorite sport may work some of the time, in the long run it will not lead to you winning money betting on sports. In order to profit from sports betting you will need to research, study, and do your homework for each pick you make. Look at stats, find trends, create sports betting systems, analyze past games – basically do everything you could possibly do to ensure you have value in your pick before you place your wager.

#4 Line Shopping

A very big step to becoming a winning sports bettor is to make sure you are shopping for the best lines. What this means is that you will have to have an account at a couple of different online sportsbooks and when you are ready to make a bet on a certain team or outcome you check the different sportsbooks and find which book is offering the best line for you (this ties in with our advanced how to find max value article). For example, if you are looking to bet on the New England Patriots on a 7 point spread, you would want to check a couple different sportsbooks to see if any of them are offering the Patriots at 6.5 points, or at the very least find the best price you can get them at 7 points at. Over the course of a sport betting season you can win yourself a lot of money from shopping the lines that would otherwise would not be one. Line shopping is definitely one of the best sports betting strategies used by winning sports bettors. To see a list of sportsbooks we recommend signing up for visit our Online Betting Sites section.

I’ve created a line shopping video and posted it on YouTube (seen below):

#5 Avoid Buying Points

Avoid falling into “square” tendencies such as buying favorites down or underdogs up. For example, some bettors always feel the need to buy an NFL favorite of -3.5 down to -2.5. The sportsbooks are smart enough to charge more juice to do this, mathematically making it a bad strategy. The same goes with buying an NFL underdog from +2.5 to +3.5 for example. In 99% of cases I would advise against it. Check out the video I made below about buying points on NFL underdogs.

Other Sports Betting Strategies and Myths

Above are the four main basic strategies you will want to follow in order to become a winning sports bettor, but there are a couple of other tips you can use to help you win money.

For one, you can try following a sports handicapper who is using a proven sports betting system. Be careful of scammers out there though. If they don’t show their past records long term plus proof I would pass, and in most cases I wouldn’t be paying for picks at all.

An old sports betting strategy is to bet on home underdogs. The theory is that teams are usually more inspired to play at home, and they will often not fold if they are down like they may when on the road. Betting home dogs in the past could have made you money, but this isn’t true as much anymore. You can read the current betting market article to learn why.

The last tip I have for you is to try and place your bets at the right time. With lines shifting from the time they are posted to the time the game starts, you will want to get your bet in at the time when you are getting the best price. Predicting line movements is extremely hard but it is worth looking into. Check out the video below that I made titled “When To Place Your Bets”.

Advanced Sports Betting Strategy Articles

» How to Place a Bet
» How to Win at Sports Betting
» Sports Betting Math
» Teaser Betting Strategy
» Prop Betting Strategy
» How to Get Max Value When Betting
» Future Betting Strategy
» NFL Bye Week Betting Strategy
» Parlay Betting Strategy
» Pleaser Betting Strategy
» Sweetheart Teaser Betting Strategy
» Current Betting Market
» How to Research Your Bet
» Mistakes You Need to Avoid
» Things Beginners Need to Know
» Win/Loss vs Value

Football is one of the most popular betting markets in the world. This makes it a very attractive prospect for trading.

In this football trading guide, we will explain some of the multitude of football trading strategies for you to try out yourself.

There is no one magic strategy that works every time, so don’t believe the hype and get suckered in. That’s not to say there is no way to make money in the long run.

By using a combination of different strategies and applying the most effective method each time, you can build yourself a nice profit.

Maybe even enough to quit your full-time job!

Table of Contents

Is Football A Good Market To Trade?

Football is a hugely popular sport. The nature of the game, with comebacks and capitulations a common feature, make it an exciting sport to bet on. This makes the football markets some of the most liquid markets out there.

This means there is a lot of money flowing into and out of matches. Any bets you wish to place are more likely to be matched and will be matched faster.

This helps us get into a market quickly, and exit quickly when the time is right.

This Premier League match between Liverpool and Newcastle is not for another 2 weeks, but there has already been almost £28,000 in matched bets on Betfair Exchange.

The English Premier League tends to have extremely liquid markets, even on weekdays.

Generally, the lower down a league is, the fewer bets are placed on matches. This means there is less money available to have your bets matched.

How To Trade Football

There are many different recognised methods for trading football effectively and profitably. There is no one technique that always works.

To be an efficient football trader, you will need to understand several different methods and apply them accordingly.

Fortunately, most are easy to understand, and once you get some practice in feeling when the time is right to enter/exit a market, you can get started making decent profits.

Trading football is basically the same as buying and selling stocks.

The general rule is to buy low, sell high. Unlike the stock market, however, a football match has a specified end-point; once the 90-minutes plus stoppage time are up. This creates an opportunity for trading.

Some of the most popular football trading techniques are based on this ‘time decay’.

For example, if a match is 0-0 at 75 minutes, the odds of a draw will be fairly high.

As more time passes and no goals are scored, the higher and higher the likelihood of a draw will become. Therefore, the odds will trend slowly toward 1.01, reaching that point at the end of the match.

Football traders always prefer a more liquid market. Some of the best football trading systems will not work if the market is not liquid enough.

Almost every technique relies on someone matching your exit bet. If there is not enough money available to match that bet quickly, it can go unmatched. This is an easy way to lose money.

Any market that is liquid enough can be traded on. As long as there are punters actively backing a laying in a market, there should be enough opportunities to get your bets matched.

Being able to effectively read a market is key to football trading. You need to have a good feel for certain situations which commonly arise in matches, and how they affect the price of odds.

To practice and gain experience, next time you watch a match, keep tabs on the price of odds. Observe how certain events cause the odds to change and by how much.

Another method relies on the changing odds at half-time. On Betfair, the market for half-time scores is known as ‘Half Time’.

However, this market is not nearly as liquid as the full-time score market. Therefore, methods using this technique should only be used on extremely popular matches.

To get an idea of which markets are the most liquid, and therefore more preferable for trading, you can check ‘where is the money’ on Betfair.

This can be found in the very bottom left of the Betfair Exchange home screen. It will bring up a list of the markets with the most matched and unmatched money available.

Pre-Game – Trading Team News

One popular method for football traders occurs before the match even begins.

Trading the team news is easy once you get a feel for it and know what to look out for. This technique relies on knowing which players are essential for a team, and how each player affects certain odds.

For example, let’s say a top striker is left out of a big match.

The final outcome odds might not change much, but the goals market could certainly shift. Likewise, if a top defender is benched, the odds for goals scored by the opposing team could certainly shift.

You need to be fast when trading team news. The market will shift very rapidly as many traders make their bets.

Betting software is recommended so that you can place your bets as fast as possible, and spend more time analysing the market and less time placing the bet itself.

Another opportunity for pre-match trading is when the groups are announced in large tournaments.

The mix of stronger and weaker teams in each group will affect the odds of each team qualifying for the knockout round and getting to the final.

In-Game – Trading Match Result

Trading in-play is exciting and can be very profitable if done properly.

Speed is essential here, and using betting software is recommended to get your trades locked-in as fast as possible.

A common tip for trading in-play is to use a radio rather than watch the match on TV. There is a slight delay in TV broadcasts compared to radio. Getting that extra 1-2 second head-start can make the difference between profit and loss in a highly liquid market.

Having a feel for how a match is going is a big help in football trading.

If you watch a lot of football matches, you can almost sense when a team is on the ascendancy and is likely to have a chance at a goal. It is important to know both of the teams, and what their motivation is for winning.

Scalping the time decay is common in football trading. This is an easy way to make small profits, and if done consistently, can build up to a decent amount.

As a match progresses, the likelihood of the current score being the final score increases.

If the score is 0-0 at 75 minutes, there will be a high likelihood of the outcome being a draw. If the score remains at 0-0, the odds will slowly tick down as time passes, eventually ending up at 1.01.

Under/Over 2.5 Goals

Another common market for football traders is goals scored. Two of the most popular bets are Under 2.5 Goals and Over 2.5 Goals.

If you are betting on Under 2.5 Goals, this means if two or less goals go in, you will win. If you are betting on Over 2.5 Goals, you will win if three or more goals go in.

Of course, the principal is the same for Under/Over 1.5, 3.5 etc, but the 2.5 markets tend to be the most popular, and therefore the most liquid.

Scalping Under 2.5 Goals is a method that relies on the time decay of match. As long as no goals are scored, you can predict exactly which way the price will move.

A standard technique here would be to ‘back’ Under 2.5 Goals toward the start of the match when the price is high, and then to ‘lay’ Under 2.5 Goals as the match progresses and the price drops.

If an early goal does go in, you still have the ability to exit your position without a total loss.

This is where betting software comes in; if you are listening on the radio and can sense that a team is playing very attacking or dominating another team, you can quickly exit your position to avoid a loss.

Trading Over 2.5 Goals is popular because everyone loves to see goals. This method is essentially the opposite of the previously described technique.

If a match looks exciting and aggressive, you would back Over 2.5 Goals just as a goal is about to be scored, then exit out by laying after a goal is scored.

This strategy sounds simple, but it relies on goal timing. If your team does not get the goal you predicted, the odds will get higher and higher as the match goes on, and you have the potential for a loss.

Laying The Draw

This is another very popular technique and relies on goals being scored in a match. This method works by placing a ‘lay’ bet on a draw, while the match is still a draw, usually at the start of a match.

Now all you have to do is wait for a goal to go in and should be able to exit your position for a profit.

This method is popular because it doesn’t matter which team scores, as the odds should move in your favour either way.

Sports Betting Strategy Reddit

Bear in mind though that this may not always happen. If one team is a clear favourite at the start of the game and you lay the draw, but then the underdog gets a goal, the chance of a draw occurring may increase.

This can cause you to make a loss. No technique is perfect!

Back The Loser

This is another popular method that involves matches where one team is highly favoured. This works well when a team is likely to win and odds of around 1.50 or less are offered for their victory.

We would watch the game, and look for the underdog scoring an early goal, or a goal against the run of play.

An opposition goal would immediately swing the odds by some amount, depending on the time of the goal and several other factors. However, the odds for backing the favourite may have risen to around 2.50. This is the time to back them.

Take this upcoming match between Bayern Munich and Crvena Zvezda in the Champions League for example.

Clearly, Bayern Munich are favourites to win this game, and the best odds we can get for backing them right now are just 1.09. At this price, even the very low risk of them not winning is barely worth the gamble.

However, if Crvena Zvezda get an early goal, the odds of Bayern Munich winning will go up. Probably to around 1.5 or possibly higher, depending mostly on when the goal is scored, and which team is looking more up for the match.

This would be a good time to back Bayern Munich, even though they are behind. If it seems highly likely Munich will get a goal back, then we can ‘green up’ when they do get their equaliser.

Greening up is a common term for exiting out of your position for a profit.

Even though the profit you will get for exiting out of your position before the match is up will be smaller than if you wait until the end of the match, a sensible and professional trader will always lock in the guaranteed profit rather than go for the risky extra buck.

As you can see in the above image, we have created a situation whereby whatever the outcome is, we will ‘come in green’.

If Japan or Paraguay win, we will win £12, and if there is a draw, we will still win £17. If you want to be a trader rather than a gambler, you should always ‘green up’ for a guaranteed profit when given the chance.

Final Thoughts…

Getting greedy is where most people will fail.

Successful trading is all about locking in your profits when you can, and knowing when to accept failure and cut your losses.

Remember that there is no one strategy that works every time.

What Is The Best Sports Betting Strategy

To trade successfully, you need to learn as many methods as possible, and know when to use each one.

Nfl Sports Betting

Start with some of the more basic techniques such as laying the draw and backing the losing favourite.

Sports Betting Lines Scores

Once you are more confident, take a free trial on some betting software, and practice the methods which rely on speed, such as scalping the time decay.

Over time, you can increase your stakes as you become more comfortable. You are bound to make a few mistakes early on, so don’t let this discourage you.

Sports Betting Strategy Pdf

Thanks for reading this article on Football Trading Strategies. If there is anything that you are still unclear about, don’t hesitate to shoot us an email. One of our team will get back to you as soon as possible.