What Is Infinite Blackjack
Infinite Blackjack is a game that exists within a lobby all its own. While some of the other Evolution live dealer games take place in a large studio where other games and tables can be seen in the.
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www.blackjackinfo.com/bjtourn-dealercharts.php#TIDS17
My calculations get, P(bust w Ace) = 11.52863%
Other site says it is 16.65% probability.
I assume dealer sits on soft-17.
Can anyone help me out with where I might be going wrong? I feel like my number might be right.
Evolution Blackjack
If any one can confirm it would help me sleep tonight... :)
Wardos
Infinite blackjack, just as the name suggests, is an infinite 21 blackjack game with limitless number of players and decks of blackjack card at the tables. Unlike the usual setting where the table consists of. Infinite Blackjack is a world-class game. Typical live blackjack is a superb game in its own right, however, Infinite Blackjack is also a unique Live Casino game. With all of its cool features, Infinite Blackjack has. Described by its maker as “exceptional blackjack with unlimited seats”, Infinite Blackjack is so much more than just that. It caters to so many player types as it encompasses various favourable characteristics that blackjack players simply love to see. First and foremost, vacant seats.
As Miplet said, my number of 11.52863% is 36/52 of 16.65%, so the website my operate being able to peek. 36 being in an infinite deck 52 minus 16 picture cards.
Many thanks.
Wardos
I've always assumed that an infinite deck was similar to an airplane with an infinite wingspan: easy for calculations but a bit impractical in real life.
Just as an infinite wingspan makes the plane a bit difficult to get into a hangar, some real world problems arise with the concept of an infinite deck.
I remember the days of 'Dealer Must Draw to 16, Stop on all 17s'. Then it became Dealer hits on a soft 17. It also became a cards coming not just out of a shoe but they have these devices that shuffle automatically. Some seem to introduce those shuffled discards back into the shoe so the deck does seem to be of infinite length.
Unfortunately I've never been able to differentiate between the devices but have concluded that I've played most often at devices that shuffled but did not re-introduce the discards into the shoe in any manner. If I play most often at a table wherein there is a shoe to dealers left and a separate device to dealers right from which a stack of cards is removed from time to time, should I consider this to be an infinite deck or an 8 card deck? Does it really make a difference?
As per the earlier thread, I have been trying to re-create infinite deck expected returns in my own Excel spreadsheet. I know there are sites with optimal play strategies but I wanted to crunch the numbers myself. I have been referring to Wizard of Odds, Appendix 1 to the Blackjack section:
I have been able to set up all the dealer probabilities of either: (i) going bust; or (ii) reaching totals of 17-21 (and agree with the Wiz). But I can't reconcile all the expected returns when hitting. When calculating the players first two card totals of 16-21 I agree with the Wiz but then there doesn't appear to be any consistency with lower Player first two card totals.
For example, Player is on Hard 15. I work out odds of hitting one more card A, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 & T. Hitting for a 7, 8, 9 & T = bust, for 2, 3, 4, 5 & 6 I pick up the expected returns when the player sits on the new total which is 15 + 2 thru 6 = 17, 18, 19, 20 & 21. Problem I have is with the Ace??
I would have thought the returns I pick up were the same as the expected returns for sitting on 16. For each of the Dealer's cards I thought it would be:
2 = -0.2928
3 = -0.2523
4 = -0.2111
5 = -0.1672
6 = -0.1537
7 = -0.4754
8 = -0.5105
9 = -0.5431
T = -0.5404
A = -0.6670
This matches the Wiz for Dealer's up-card for 2, 3, 4, 5 & 6 but differs for the others 7, 8, 9, T & A. It looks like the Wiz for these numbers uses:
7 = -0.4148
8 = -0.4584
9 = -0.5093
T = -0.5398
A = -0.5171
, which if you look at the tables is picking up the expected returns for the previously derived expected returns for 16.
I would have thought this is inconsistent? Either you pick up the row for the previously derived expected returns or you use the sitting expected returns. Basically, I don't understand the logic used.
The way I think it should work is Player is on Hard 15 and hits, gets say a 2 which is the same expected returns as sitting on 17. Then you evaluate the expected returns for sitting and hitting on 17 to determine what to do, but it doesn't look like this is the way the Wiz has done it.
If any one is about to help it would be appreciated, I can always email my worksheet if that helps?
Administrator
I have poured through your Wizard of Odds site in much detail and can't find anything about actually crunching the numbers. I am doing it the old fashion way in Excel and have so far conquered:
1) all dealer probabilities of going bust, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21 or BJ with the 13 different up-cards
2) expected return for player sitting on all totals
3) expected return for player doubling
but am having a lot of trouble for player hitting expected returns. It's actually doing my head in, so would love some help. I can't seem to pick up the logic to reconcile with your Blackjack Appendix 1 expected returns for hitting.
Anyway, I will standby for your spreadsheet.
Cheers
Wardos
Mike: Hi, this is Mike with the Wizard of Odds. In my last video, I showed you how you can create the Blackjack Basic Strategy starting with just the blank spreadsheet, which is in front of me right now. And in this second part, I'm going to show you, how to go from here to getting a house advantage in Blackjack. So I already know the expected amount the player's going to win or lose for any hand.
Now all I need to do is find the probability of any starting hand and then multiply those probabilities by the expected values and finally make an adjustment for the dealer having a blackjack to begin with.
So let's start with a page, let's call it Prob for probability. This will stand for the probability of every possible starting hand. So the player could start with anything from a five up to a 21 or a blackjack. He could have a soft anything from a 13 to a blackjack. So with the hard totals, we will put the blackjacks with the soft totals. And there's the possible split. So we'll say a pair from two up to ten and then the Aces. And of course, we do everything according to the dealer's up card. All right.
The player's first card could be a two through an Ace, as well as the second card. So let's find how often each possible sum occurs. So not counting the Aces. This table shows the total for every combination of the first card and the second card. I'm going to get rid of the pairs because I treat those separately because the player can split those. All right. So here's all the possible hard totals and in this column I'm going to indicate the probability of each one as seen by how often they occur in this table up here. So I'm going to use the sum if function, which I use all the time. Wait, it's little premature to do that. Okay. Here's a similar table.
I'm going to make another table that shows the probability of each total. So in most cases, it's just one in 13 times, one in 13, when there's no ten involved. When there's a ten involved, it's one in 13 times, four in 13.
Okay. Now we're already. Equal sum if, and we're searching through this table for this number and when we find it, we sum up these numbers. And I have to put in the dollar sign, so when I copy and paste this, the range will stay the same of the two matrices.
Let me make this bigger for you guys because you probably can't see it very well. Sorry about that. Okay.
So here we've got the probability of each player hard total from five up to 19. So up here, I'm pretty much doing the same thing that across the dealer total. But you don't need to bother. So I can simply say for the hard five for example, as refer to my table down here and then times one in 13 for the dealer up card of the two. And I'm going to take away this 20 because the idea with that with the pairs. Okay.
For a dealer up card to ten, I do the same thing but I multiply by four divided by 13 because there's four, ten point cards in the deck but now I'm also going to multiply by 12 and 13 because we know that the hole card is not an Ace. And a similar thing with the Aces, except we're back to multiplying by one 13th, for the dealer Ace and nine and divided by 13, for the fact that the hole card is not a ten point card. So here's all the probabilities of each starting hand for player hard totals. So according to this 67.6% of the time, the player will be dealing with a hard total. Okay.
The soft totals with most of them, it's going to be two times, one in 13 squared. And the reason for the two is because with a soft 13 for example, the two cards, the Ace and the two could be an either, or, so you multiply by two. And then also multiply by one in 13 for the dealer's up card. So the total probabilities two times, one in 13 queued. And this is going to work all the way through the soft 20. With the soft 21, there's a greater chance of that because there's more ten point cards than any of the other cards. So we're going to do two times, one in 13 squared, times four in 13. Okay.
So I copied and pasted that, all the way through the dealer's nine. Actually I copied and pasted too far. So now let's do the ten. Again, we're going to change one of the one in 13's to a four in 13 and also multiplied by 12 and 13, because the dealer doesn't have an Ace in the hole. For soft 13 again it's an Ace. We can keep it the same, two times, one in 13 queued and then times nine and 13 because we know the dealer doesn't have a ten point card in the hole. Okay.
The probability of a player blackjack against the dealer ten, is two times one in 13 times four and 13 times four and 13, times 12 and divided by 13. Probability of a player blackjack divided by- I mean against a dealer Ace is two times, one in 13 times, four and 13 times, one in 13 times, nine and 13. Hopefully that's right.
What Is Infinite Blackjack Poker
Now, let's deal with the pairs. Probability of a player pair of twos, against the dealer two, is one in 13 queued. And we don't multiply by two because we're dealing with two of the same card. That's going to work all the way through the dealer nines, as well as the pair of Aces, for a pair of tens against the dealer two, we do four and 13 squared times one in 13, for the dealer two. Copy and paste that down. Okay.
Now let's do the same thing but for the dealer ten up. That's going to be one in 13 squared, times four and 13, times 12 and 13. The probability of a player paired tens against the dealer ten, is four and 13 queued, times 12 and 13. All right.
Probability of a pair of twos against a dealer Ace, is one of 13 queued, times nine in 13. Probability of a player paired tens against the dealer Ace is four in 13 squared, times one in 13 times nine in 13. Okay.
There's all the probabilities, hopefully they're right. In fact, let's add them up and see if they are. Okay.
What Is Infinite Blackjack Games
That adds up to 95.27%. And the part we're missing is the dealer blackjack. The probability of the dealer Blackjack is two times four and 13 times one in 13 or 4.74%. So let's add up these and hopefully they add up to one. They do, great. So there's a probability sheet.
How To Play Infinite Blackjack
Next, let's make a sheet for the Expected Returns.
The next step is going to be to create an expected return sheet which we'll call ER for short. This is going to contain the expected return of any given hand, which we've already figured out. We're just going to summarize it all in one convenient sheet, in the same kind of layout as the probability sheet. So for a hard five against a two, we just need to refer to the Hit, Stand, Double, Surrender sheet. Copy and paste that down. Same thing with the soft totals. And the pairs. But here for the pairs, we're going to refer to the splitting sheet from the last video.
Next, let's make an Expected Value sheet which we'll call EV. This is going to be the probability of the expected value and the probability for any given hand. So we simply need to multiply the probability sheet, any cell in the probability sheet by the corresponding cell in the expected to turn sheet. And do that for every possible starting hand. And let's see what it all adds up to. A positive 1.43%. But as I've been saying all along, we've been assuming the whole way that the dealer does not have a blackjack. And I just realized, I made an error, in the Expected Return sheet for a soft 21, I've been treating it like an Ace five and a five. When actually it should be 1.5 because it's a blackjack. So let me copy and paste this 1.5 all the way down, that changes the Expected Return to 4.02%. But again that's- once you clear the hurdle of no dealer blackjack, what's the probability of a dealer blackjack? That is two times, four in 13 times, one in 13 and the two is because the ten and Ace could be in either order.
So there's also a possibility that there is a winning dealer blackjack. And the probability of that is the probability of a blackjack, times the probability that the player does not have a blackjack. And we're going to multiply by negative one because the player loses in that situation. There's also the possibility of a blackjack tie but that results in a push. So that's not...so we would be adding and subtracting zero, so we don't need to bother with that. So what's the grand total? Let's call this, No Dealer Blackjack. Just the sum of these two cells and the answer is negative 48.5%. So there you have it. That is my expected return for a blackjack game with infinite decks, dealer stands on a soft 17, double after a split is allowed, split only one time. Surrender allowed, resplitting Ace is not allowed. If you look up these rules but under an eight deck game, you'll get .43%. The difference between .43 and .485 is due to that infinite deck assumption. So there you have it. The House Edge in blackjack assuming an infinite deck, again just starting from nothing.
Thank you and hope you enjoyed it.